Norway's piped gas supplies to the rest of Europe declined by 7.5% year on year in the first half amid a higher level of planned maintenance and unplanned outages, the IEA said. Russia continues to supply pipeline gas to Europe only via Ukraine at the Sudzha entry point and via the European string of TurkStream, with deliveries currently averaging less than 2 Bcm/month. Russian piped gas exports to OECD Europe fell by an estimated 65% year on year in the first half, with the profile of flows to the EU staying relatively stable at an average of 60 million cu m/d. "LNG continued to gain market share and accounted for almost 40% of Europe's gas consumption in the first half - a share similar to Russia's before its invasion of Ukraine," the IEA said. In supply, LNG accounted for close to 40% of Europe's gas consumption in the first half, representing what the IEA called a "new baseload" supply.Įurope's total gas supply dropped by 13% year on year in the first half largely driven by lower Russian piped gas deliveries. Stronger renewable power output and improving nuclear availability further reduced the call on coal- and gas-fired power plants, which saw their combined output declining by over 20% - or close to 55 TWh. "Subdued activity in energy-intensive industries together with continued improvements in energy efficiency and behavioral changes depressed electricity consumption," it said. Gas-to-power demand dropped by an estimated 20% year on year in Q2. "Rising affordability issues are also likely to have contributed to lower gas use in households," it said. These include gas-saving measures enacted in public buildings, fuel-switching in rural households, the continued deployment of heat pumps, efficiency gains and behavioral changes. "Non-weather-related factors explain the bulk of this demand reduction," the IEA said. "Lower gas burn in the power sector accounted for 70% of the overall reduction in gas demand in Q2, amid depressed electricity demand and stronger renewable power output," it said.ĭistribution network-related demand fell by an estimated 8% year on year in Q2 despite a colder spring, with heating degree days in April and May standing 10% above their 2022 levels. The pace of demand reduction moderated from the 13% year-on-year drop experienced in Q1 to a 10% decline during Q2. It said gas use in industry is expected to continue its gradual recovery, "albeit remaining well below its pre-crisis levels."įor the first half of 2023, the IEA said European gas demand had fallen by over 10%, or more than 30 Bcm.
In 2024, OECD's Europe gas demand is forecast to increase by a moderate 1.5%, as the expected decline in gas for power generation is not offset by higher gas use in other sectors, the IEA said. The IEA said that, considering the declines in the year to date, demand in the European residential and commercial sector is expected to fall by 4% in 2023. It was last assessed on July 17 at Eur25.65/MWh. The benchmark Dutch TTF month-ahead price averaged Eur44.11/MWh in the first half, according to Platts pricing data by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Gas prices are currently well down compared with the first six months of the year. The new 7% decline forecast, the IEA said, is largely driven by lower gas burn in the power sector, which is seen down by 15% amid rapidly expanding renewables and lower electricity consumption.Īnd gas use in industry is expected to stay close to last year's levels, as lower gas prices enable demand recovery in the second half of the year, offsetting the losses in the first half, it said. In its previous quarterly report in May, the IEA said European gas demand was forecast to decline by 5% to 498 Bcm which was already a revision down from its previous forecast from February of 505 Bcm. In its latest quarterly gas market report published late July 17 alongside its annual gas security review, the IEA said European gas demand is now forecast to fall by 7% year on year in 2023 to 489 Bcm. Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience.
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